To say the “two-dollar” transport subsidy for senior citizens is the most popular policy rolled out by the Hong Kong Government after 1997 is no exaggeration.

Initiated by former chief executive Donald Tsang in 2011, the scheme that allowed people who are 65 or above to enjoy trips on public transport for just HK$2 won applause from the populace and political parties representing different political inclinations.

Amid a political storm ignited by protests against a now-shelved extradition bill in 2019, the then chief executive, Carrie Lam, lowered the eligible age from 65 to 60. It won a fresh round of applause. Come 2025, curses surfaced.

An unidentified member of Lam’s Executive Council has revealed Lam’s decision was almost opposed by all members in the top advisory body at that time in view of the huge financial burden in the long-run. His or her claim has neither been confirmed nor denied.

The alleged truth behind the secretive discussion at Exco was revealed at a time when a divisive debate over whether the scheme should be scaled down to help cut government spending is heating up.

Views were divided among the populace – and also within the “all-patriots” Legislative Council.

Divided views within the “all-patriots” Legislative Council

On one side were those who called for ways to lower the expenditure on the subsidy. They include a reset of the eligible age of the welfare back to 65, raising the two-dollar fee to three or four dollars for a trip and putting a cap on the total amount of transport subsidy each citizen is entitled to in each month or the whole year.

Leading the crusade for a cut were pro-business political parties, including the Liberal Party and the Business and Professional Alliance for Hong Kong, and legislators. Liberal Party’s Tommy Cheung, who also sits on Exco, demanded limiting the benefits to those who are 65 or above, at a meeting with the Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, during the consultation period.

The two major pro-Beijing political forces, namely the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and the Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), have not yet met with Chan to lay down their demands. Their members in Legco, however, have given clear indications that they were against major changes to the scheme.

DAB legislator Gary Chan, who is also an Exco member, said at a Legco meeting that tackling deficits should not take its toll on elderly people’s welfare.

Members of DAB and FTU told reporters residents they met in districts felt anxious about the calls for a cut of the transport subsidy.

One reportedly quoted residents as saying they were their supporters and were not anti-Government, adding they would take to the streets if the subsidies were cut.

In view of the increased legal risk of holding public rallies and protests, the possibility of massive protests against a cut of transport subsidy is almost zero.

Both DAB and FTU have not held public rallies after the national security law took effect. FTU, which held public rallies regularly on the May 1 Labour Day, no longer staged the traditional rally.

The dilemma John Lee facing

Realistically, the dilemma Chief Executive John Lee and his team facing is not so much about the risk of social unrest. The reasons are obvious. The deterrent effects of a list of security-related laws are huge.

Vowing to bring about a feeling of gain and happiness of the people, Lee would indeed find it difficult to dismiss a betrayal of his own pledge if he decided to move backwards over the transport subsidy plan.

Judging from the size of deficits, a cut in transport subsidy will not help ease the city’s fiscal deficit significantly. Worse, it risks laying bare the incompetence of the Government in restoring public finance to a healthy footing.

Call it a “two dollar question”. The looming row over the fate of the transport subsidy for senior citizens is not the cause, but the result of the most pressing and daunting problem facing Hong Kong. It’s the lackluster economy, not threats to national security, that needs an urgent fix.

How to tackle the “two dollar question”, among other economic and fiscal woes, will be a litmus test of the ability and skill of the Lee team in leading the city from stability to prosperity.

To readers: This is my last article in the Year of the Dragon. Wish you and your family happiness, richness and vitality in the Year of the Snake.

▌[At Large] About the Author

Chris Yeung is a veteran journalist, a founder and chief writer of the now-disbanded CitizenNews; he now runs a daily news commentary channel on Youtube. He had formerly worked with the South China Morning Post and the Hong Kong Economic Journal.