Flashed back to December 2021, the first “patriots-only” Legislative Council election ended with a historic low turnout. Of the 4.47 million registered voters, only 1.35 million have cast their votes, representing a 30.2 per cent turnout rate. It contrasted sharply with the corresponding figures in the previous Legco election in 2016 (58.3%) and the 2019 district council election (71.2%).

The government and its loyalists put on a brave face. One pro-Beijing columnist hailed it as a “calm and rational” election, insisting the turnout was better than expected. He said credit should go to the government for its intense mobilisation.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Marking the first step towards a new era of “patriots running Hong Kong,” the fact that only three out of 10 registered voters have turned out to cast their votes could not possibly be an acceptable result.

Facts speak louder than propaganda.

All the heads rolled up their sleeves

Come the second Legco election following the electoral overhaul in 2021 scheduled for December 7, the government has mounted the biggest-ever political mobilisation campaign aimed to shoot up the turnout rate to sky-high levels.

For the first time, ministers, department heads have rolled up their sleeves touring government offices and public places calling on people to vote. A handful of senior officials have made voting appeals in their native home dialects including Hakka, Chowchiu and Shandong.

This writer attended a workshop organised by a government cultural office at the weekend. About 30 people attended. At the end of the hour-long workshop, a staff member reminded us to vote on December 7.

Public housing estates, shopping malls, government offices and community buildings were the scenes of a sea of election posters and banners. There is no escape to the wave of publicity of the second “patriots-only” Legco election. The scale and intensity of which have been unprecedented.

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

With the voting day nearing, there is no doubt the government-led campaign aimed to ramp up the Legco election will be further intensified.

A showcase of the success

For the 161 hopefuls, their targets are the 90 seats up for grabs. For the government, the stakes are sky-high.

The second “patriots-only” Legco election is not just another round of musical chairs among the patriots for the 90 seats. For the authorities, it ought to be a showcase of the success of the development of “high-quality democracy” under the framework of “patriots running Hong Kong.”

Voters are told to choose the best candidates with high capability, good image, among others to contribute to good governance and the grand plan of “one country, two systems.”

For it to succeed, the central authorities are holding high hopes that the people of Hong Kong will take part with unprecedented enthusiasm. Casting a vote will be seen as a vote in support of the revamped electoral system, the city’s governance led by Chief Executive John Lee and the implementation of “one country, two systems.”

The Lee administration ought to show they have done their best, and have walked the extra mile to unite all sectors and all people together to lure as many people as possible to cast their votes.

Government’s huge bet

By design or default, expectation of a high turnout has been raised by the government, which is not without risk.

A voter turnout with no significant increase, in particular in the total number of voters who cast their votes, will be embarrassing, to say the least, given the enormity of government efforts and resources in the election. It will not bode well for the capability of the Lee team.

Based on the argument made by Secretary for Justice Paul Lam, an unenthusiastic response by voters may undermine Beijing’s confidence in the people of Hong Kong.

Writing in his blog on social media, Lam said actively taking part in the elections demonstrates support for the principle of “patriots governing Hong Kong” and will undoubtedly strengthen the central government’s confidence in “Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong.”

The higher the stakes government officials have added onto the coming election, the bigger the risk that it will backfire, as he has alluded to in his comments about the 2021 Legco election.

Without mentioning the 2021 Legco election, Lam admitted that public dissatisfaction over the revamped election system in that it was not democratic enough might affect people’s voting incentive.

He did not say in his blog how to address their discontent by making the system more democratic. Instead, Lam said the goal of full universal suffrage “still exists” in the Basic Law, arguing that more people taking part in the coming election could help make it come true sooner.

Whether his argument makes a convincing case is in the eyes of beholders. Only time can tell whether it will be the case.

But it won’t take long for the government to know the results of its huge bet on its mobilisation strengths, enormity of resources and persuasive skills in driving people to vote.

▌ [At Large] About the Author

Chris Yeung is a veteran journalist, a founder and chief writer of the now-disbanded CitizenNews; he now runs a daily news commentary channel on Youtube. He had formerly worked with the South China Morning Post and the Hong Kong Economic Journal.