An early release of media mogul Jimmy Lai, who was sentenced to 20 years for violating the national security law, remains a possibility, albeit with a distance, following the landmark visit of United States President Donald Trump to Beijing on Friday.

Mindful of the risk of over-interpreting the unconfirmed exchanges between Trump and President Xi Jinping on Lai’s fate during the visit, the demand for letting Lai, who is 78, go home did not seem to be a non-negotiable topic on their agenda. Based on Trump’s remarks, it was on the negotiable table, at least on its margin.

Pastor Jin Mingri

This is despite the fact that Trump was quick not to raise the expectation of an early release of Lai. Instead, he revealed that Xi said freeing Lai was a “tough one for him to do.”

Trump was speaking to reporters on Air Force One during his return flight to the US. Asked about the fate of political prisoners in China, he said: “(Xi) said Jimmy Lai is a tough one for him to do; he went through a lot, right or wrong, they went through a lot.”

Trump said that Xi would “strongly” consider the release of a pastor of an underground church.

It looks probable that Xi has not further explained why it was tough for him, nor has Trump seemed to have pressed for a more specific answer.

The chance of an early release of Jin Mingri, to whom Trump was referring, before Xi’s return visit to the US in late September, looks reasonably good.

Ji, the founder of a prominent Chinese underground church, was detained in October in a nationwide crackdown. Jin founded the unregistered Zion Church in 2007 in Beijing. Though faced pressure from the mainland authorities, it maintained an online presence with followers across the nation. Jin was arrested on October 10 on “suspicion of the illegal use of information networks.”

Lai, founder of the now-defunct Apple Daily newspaper, was found guilty in December on charges of collusion with foreign forces and seditious publication.

The jailing of Jimmy Lai and Apple senior editors has split Hong Kong society. Despite strong condemnation by the mainland authorities, Western governments and human rights groups have hailed Lai as a fighter for democracy and press freedom; they have called for his early release.

Seems the talk not come to an end

Speaking about ten months after the Lai trial began in October 2024, Trump said “100% I’ll get him out. He’ll be easy to get out.” He said he would bring up the issue with Xi when they were scheduled to meet at a summit in May 2025.

The Chinese authorities have never confirmed whether the two leaders have discussed Lai’s fate. The latest Xi-Trump summit was no exception.

As of Saturday, Trump’s remarks on his talk with Xi on Lai have neither been confirmed nor denied.

Insisting that the Jimmy Lai case was China’s internal affairs, the central authorities and Hong Kong government have consistently rebuked criticism from foreign governments, parliamentarians and human rights groups against Lai’s imprisonment. Calls for his release were deemed as foreign interference.

If Trump was telling the truth as he claimed he always did at a photo-call session of his meeting with Xi on Thursday, Xi had not flatly rejected any discussion on an issue deemed as China’s internal affair, i.e., Lai’s fate.

Judging from Trump’s remarks and his previous promise of getting Lai out, last week’s Xi-Trump talk on Lai’s fate does not seem to have come to an end. Whether it marks the beginning of an end is difficult to tell.

There is no doubt, however, pressure for Trump to double his efforts and make good use of his friendship with Xi to secure the early release of Lai will continue. The jailing of Lai will continue to be a subject of controversy in the Hong Kong story locally and in the international community.

Is it a tough one ?

It is anybody’s guess about what Xi meant when he said an early release of Lai was a tough one for him.

Superficially, he has no authority to make it happen even if he wants to under the constitutional framework known as “one country, two systems.” It is a matter for the Hong Kong authorities.

But in reality, it sounds inconceivable that freeing Lai before his 20-year jailing ends cannot be done if doing so could serve the overall interest of the nation and China-US relations, in that order.

Lai has earlier decided not to appeal his conviction, perhaps for both practical and political consideration. The chance of a reversal of his verdict through the court is near zero. The bet on the diplomatic game between Xi and Trump has emerged as the last chance for Lai.

At 78 and apparently not in good health, Lai is not likely to pose a substantive threat to the power-that-be after he walks free.

Although Lai has been held since December 2020, he was convicted in December 2025. A decision to let him out just four months from then is a tough one.

Unless Beijing deems the issue as non-negotiable, they will have to try to put an end to it after weighing the merits and demerits of putting Lai behind bars until after he is close to 100.

▌ [At Large] About the Author

Chris Yeung is a veteran journalist, a founder and chief writer of the now-disbanded CitizenNews; he now runs a daily news commentary channel on Youtube. He had formerly worked with the South China Morning Post and the Hong Kong Economic Journal.